Used a QPF(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) map to illustrate we have a decent shot at rain later this week for the morning discussion. Have decided to show the updated QPF which is on the right and is valid through the day Friday to illustrate that it continues to look promising for some decent rainfall amounts. Keep in mind that for this long of a time frame, only a very broad brush approach is used and locally much heavier amounts will certainly be possible. It still does not appear to be a drought breaker, but at least we will have a decent chance at enough rain to alleviate the fire danger and put some moisture back into the ground.
Between now and then, we have some more summer to endure. A return to brisk southerly winds for Monday and Tuesday together with mostly sunny skies and much above normal temperatures will also result in an elevated fire danger situation both days. The much above normal temperatures translate into low-mid 90s for daytime highs on Monday and a low Tuesday morning in the mid-upper 60s. High temperatures on Tuesday are still strongly dependent on the timing of our next cool front. There are some differences among the various solutions with some bringing the front through the I-44 corridor by mid afternoon and others not till later that night. For those still south of the front by days end, afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s and possibly even some triple digits can be expected. For those north of the boundary, daytime highs should top out in the lower 90s. The front itself does not appear to be much of a rainmaker with only a slight chance of a shower or storm by Tuesday night.
The real deal cooler air will be arriving later Wed or Wed night, but Wednesday will still be noticeably cooler with highs in the 80s due to brisk NE winds and mostly cloudy skies. There will also be about a 30% chance of showers or storms on Wednesday as the front moves further south to along the Red River and stalls out. It then is expected to remain nearly stationary well to our south keeping our surface winds from an E to NE direction through late in the week. Aloft a series of disturbances will provide mostly cloudy skies and periods of showers and embedded thunder. Right now, it appears that Thursday will have the best chance, but showers and some thunder will also be possible through Friday and the coming weekend. Thursday will also be quite cool with highs only in the 60s to near 70 if the rain works out as currently anticipated.
A gradual return to a more S to SE wind will produce moderating temperatures for the weekend, but this pattern change also means our weather will be more unsettled going into the coming weekend. The longer range guidance continues to suggest at least a chance of scattered showers and some thunder right on through the weekend and into the following week. Am cautiously optimistic that by the time this is all said and done that most of us will have received enough rain to do at least some good.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.