The widespread rainfall during the second week of August is but a distant memory now as only some spotty showers and storms have occurred since then. As you can see from the map on the right which is what we refer to as a QPF(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast), our prospects for any additional rainfall to end the month of August and to start September are rather bleak. This particular map is valid through Thursday morning. You can clearly see the torrential rainfall expected from Irene as it moves up the east coast, but only a very light QPF signal for northern OK.
So, our rain chances are non-zero, but not by much. Monday still looks to have the best shot at showers and storms as the flow aloft would support a convective complex possibly moving down from Kansas during the morning hours. If that does indeed materialize, it would primarily affect the extreme NE and E counties.
Other than that, summer is not going to give up easily. In fact, temperatures will remain much above normal pretty much all week long with the possible exception of Monday. For this Saturday and Sunday, look for daytime highs to be near the triple digit mark once again and our overnight lows to only drop into the 70s. We will have lots of sunshine both days along with a light wind, generally from an easterly component.
Right now Monday is a tough call depending totally on whether or not that storm complex does indeed develop in Kansas and then move SE, clipping the NE corner of the state. If so, the outflow from that system together with any residual cloud cover should knock temperatures down during the day, but by how much is the big question.
In any event, its effect is not expected to last long and we should be back to near triple digit heat by the middle to latter part of the week along with little or no mention of rain during that period. So, the month of August and the end of meteorological summer will end with more extremely hot and mostly dry conditions. Unfortunately, September will start off that way as well; but there is hope. The last several long range solutions have been reasonably consistent in bringing a more significant, stronger cool front over the state on Saturday. Not going to bet the farm on that outcome just yet, but if that does indeed turn out to be the case, then we will have a good shot at some badly needed rainfall with this system as well as a more significant break in the heat. Certainly hoping and praying that will be the case.
In the meantime, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.