Getting Hot Again

We see a few showers and storms this morning moving across southern Kansas into northern OK.  These will not last long but a few showers or storms in your area is a possibility today.

We're back to the hot stuff today with highs approaching 100 along with partly sunny to mostly sunny sky after some morning clouds.  A heat advisory will be in effect today and tomorrow for most of the region.  A few isolated storms remain possible today and Thursday as a weak front approaches the region.  

Yesterday was very nice as the cloud cover and scattered showers kept the daytime highs in the 80s across northern OK while southern and central OK temperatures moved into the upper 90s nearing 100.  Today the boundary now north of our area will continue moving north and the surface temperatures will respond to near or slightly above 100.  Wednesday's readings will also be above 100 to 107 before another boundary slides across the area Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.  The model data last week was a little more bullish regarding the cool down with this mid week front but the latest data continues to indicate only a modest temperature drop accompanied by a slight mention of isolated storms.  I'll keep the storm pop very low and won't drop the highs below 95 for Thursday and Friday. 

The weekend could see readings closer to the triple digits again if the EURO is correct.  I started the trend of moving these weekend numbers up a few degrees with yesterdays morning's numbers and will continue to keep them above the machine numbers at this point in the cycle.  This means highs around 96 with morning lows in the lower 70s. 

The pattern is changing.  We're seeing a front approaching our area about every 3 to 4 days.  The mid level ridge is still present and is still close enough to keep the really robust temperature changes well north, which is expected for this time of year.  These mid level ridges are extremely difficult to break down as we all know to well this summer, but it is showing signs of weakening.  

Irene:

The consensus s of the global forecasting models continues to keep Irene slightly to the right of the Florida coastline by the end of this week.  This means the center of circulation will remain over warm oceanic water and will have a chance to intensify into a very strong hurricane soon. The official forecast from the NHC suggests the system will make landfall somewhere near the confluence of the South Carolina or North Carolina coast as a Cat 3 storm.  

The storm is currently located near the Dominican Republic as of 4AM this morning, and is expected to move through the Bahamas during the next 24 to 36 hours. 

It must be noted that errors on days 4 and 5 regarding tropical systems can be as large as 200 to 250 miles.  That's why forecasters at the NHC use the large forecasting "cone" to indicate the possible forecasted position of the storm during the 3 to 5 day period.  The "cone" will become larger as the storm forecast extends into the latter half of the forecast positions to forecast the "uncertainty" of the track.  Many folks will focus on the middle of the forecast track (which is the expected path) but the storm could move anywhere within the "cone of uncertainty".