Chance of AM Storms

A few showers and storms are impacting portions of the viewing area this morning located near Ponca City to Stillwater at 5AM.  These showers and storms are elevated in nature, meaning the updrafts are not utilizing all the available potential energy and moisture located at the surface of the earth.  The updrafts are tapping into the elevated instability and energy located just above the surface.  Elevated storms are usually not severe but can briefly reach strong to severe levels.  

We expect the high of the day to approach 88 to 91 in northern OK with east winds for the first half of the day followed by southeast winds later today.  Some locations across southern OK will be closer to the upper 90s today with most of the storm activity remaining to the north. 

The weak boundary did move across the area this weekend and provided some minor relief from the heat along with some scattered storms.  We'll be in a favorable position for additional showers and storms this morning and also this afternoon in few spots along and north of the weak boundary currently located to our south.  This boundary will move northeast soon but should keep us in the not as hot air today but the heat returns Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next front for arriving Thursday morning.  This boundary should also bring some minor relief from the heat along with a very small chance of showers or storms Wednesday late into Thursday morning.  The models have "backed off" the storm chances with this middle of the week system but I'll keep the slight chance of storms in the forecast at this point. 

The position of the mid level ride will keep the northeastern OK area under the northwest flow aloft for yet another few days.  Anytime we're in this flow, we still have a chance of some showers and storms to roll into the area during late night and early morning episodes but after today and early tomorrow, the storm chances appear to remain low. 

We're tracking Hurricane Irene this morning near the Puerto Rico Island area.  The computer model suites have now trended in keeping most of the tracks along and just east of the Florida Keys which may allow the center of the storm to stay in the Atlantic for a longer period.  This means areas northward including the Georgia or Carolina coastline may be impacted by a land falling hurricane.  This system will also brush the eastern coastline of Florida.  More information later.