For those of you who are on Facebook, you may have seen some of my posts this past week regarding my 'vacation'. Spent the three hottest days of the year at Day Camp with 1st and 2nd graders at http://www.tulakogee.com/. Despite the heat, we had fishing classes each day and the fishing was actually quite good as most of the kids caught a fish. Vacation extended through yesterday when our granddaughter had her 5th birthday party. They had a good rain that evening, but still dry at my house so I guess I must not be doing something right. Anyway, look at the image on the right and you can see that although some lucky folks caught a decent rain yesterday evening, it was quite spotty.
Unfortunately, that is what is expected for today and Monday, only even fewer showers or storms will likely occur. The chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall is about 20% for late this afternoon and about the same for Monday night into Tuesday morning. That is when a cool front will be arriving. I use the term, cool front, rather loosely. Perhaps it would be better to say a 'not as hot' front will be arriving. At any rate, a more N to NE wind on Tuesday should start trending temperatures down somewhat.
Today and tomorrow though will be quite another story. Very light southerly winds, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, and temperatures back into the 102-108 range is expected for this afternoon. The higher dew points from the meager rain footprint this morning should mix out this afternoon allowing the relative humidity to drop into the lower 20% range. That also means any storms that can develop will be capable of causing damaging down burst winds as was the case on Saturday.
Monday looks to be back up around the 110 range for most of us with a brisk SW wind of 10-20 and gusts to near 30 possible. That will create an extremely high fire danger situation as the relative humidity will likely be dropping into the teens and the winds together with these low humidity levels will quickly dry out those areas that have received any rainfall.
The conditions on Monday are in advance of a front that will be pushing across the state during the morning hours of Tuesday. The more N to NE winds behind the front on Tuesday will limit daytime temperatures to near 100 and in the event we end up with more cloud cover and hopefully more rain than is currently anticipated, we may even stay below triple digits for the first time this month.
Wednesday still looks to be the best day of the week with better chances of showers or storms, more cloud cover, and a better chance of staying below triple digits. Thursday and Friday will be back up near triple digits, but the coming weekend is starting to look more promising. The data that came in over night is consistent in bringing another cool front through by early Saturday with clouds, showers, and northerly winds producing a more significant cool down for Saturday and Sunday. Given the recent model inconsistencies, this is by no means a sure thing, but certainly looks promising at this time. Let's hope and pray that is indeed the case.
In the meantime, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.