The excessive heat warnings continue for portions of northeastern OK with highs expect to soar from the upper 90s to 103. Southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common. A frontal boundary will approach the area this afternoon and slide south to the I-40 corridor bringing a slight chance of storms later tonight and Tuesday for a few locations. If storms do form, a few may be severe.
The air mass ahead of the boundary today will be very warm and the air aloft will act to CAP or prohibit upward vertical development needed for storm formation. The air aloft will cool slightly later tonight north of the boundary and this may allow for a few storms to form. A small cluster of storms may also form across western OK later this evening and track from the west to east across central OK by early tomorrow morning. A few of these storms may survive into our area by 3AM to 6AM Tuesday morning.
The boundary is expected to move northward Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next upper level system moves across the western U.S. and the mid level ridge of high pressure will once again become the dominate player for our weather. The models are suggesting the center of the ridge will remain just west of Tulsa Wednesday. If this is the case, a small cluster of storms will form in Kansas Wednesday morning and move eastward before diving down the front side of the ridge into eastern OK and western Arkansas. We currently do not have a pop for the Wednesday morning time frame. If the ridge indeed remains just west, we may add a slight pop for the eastern sections of the state, but this probability will more than likely remain too far east to impact the Tulsa metro.
Temperatures should climb back into the upper 90s and some triple digits through the end of the week, but the ridge may also retrograde (move west) by late next weekend allowing for some minor changes in the forecast for the 4th of July Holiday. Stay tuned.