Severe Storm Threat for Tonight.


Monday, June 20th 2011, 3:31 pm
By: News On 6


We did it again, set a record this morning for the warmest overnight low. That is at least the third time this month, but so far only one of those records has actually made it into the record books and that was this past Saturday. The record this morning will not likely make it into the record books either as we expect a line of storms to be moving through E OK before midnight and that rain cooled air will drop temperatures well below the record value.

Speaking of storms, expect storms to be developing near I-35 by around the 4-5pm time frame this afternoon and then moving eastward and should be along hwy 75 by around the 8-9pm time frame. These storms will present a threat of damaging winds and hail as well as an isolated tornado. In fact, this system could well produce localized winds in excess of hurricane force which is 75 mph so it could turn out to be a rather significant damaging wind event. Large hail will also be a major concern with this system.

Speaking of the winds, the gradient winds that have been blowing throughout the day today have already been at or above gale force which is 40 mph. Notice the wind map on the right courtesy of the Ok Mesonet which shows the strongest winds since midnight. Many locations have already recorded winds in excess of 40 mph and storms have not even started forming yet. So, this system has some very strong dynamics to work with and that is a major concern as we go through the evening and overnight hours.

At least this system will bring a brief break in the excessive heat we have endured so far this month. We will be well into the 90s again this afternoon, but only in the mid-upper 80s for the next couple of days. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies may look like more rain, but any additional showers or storms on Tues or Wed should be confined to the more E and SE counties.

That will change later in the week when the cool front which should arrive Tues night moves back north as a warm front. Also, the wind pattern aloft will be more supportive of late evening or overnight showers and storms, what we often refer to as MCS(mesoscale convective system) type events. Temperatures will also be warming back above normal for the latter part of the week and into the coming weekend, but not as hot as this past week has been.

So, look for a more active weather pattern for much of this week and into the weekend. At least, we will also have at least a brief break in the heat.

As always, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot