Southwest winds this afternoon combined with abundant sunshine will push the daytime highs back into the mid 90s. A weak front arrives Tuesday night bringing another slight chance of showers and storms to the northern portion of the state.
Did you enjoy the storms overnight Saturday into early Sunday? It was a welcome sight despite the fact that a few of the storms were strong to severe around 1AM Sunday morning. The models had a horrible handle on the position of the boundary during this period and it allowed the mesoscale convective system to move across northern OK instead of central Kansas. And another weak boundary is expected to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning which brings up another issue regarding the positioning of the boundary. If the boundary sinks more south (like this weekend) we may have a slight better chance of a few storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and then again Thursday morning. If the boundary remains in the northern position, our chances for storms will be less than 20%. We have trended up with our pops for Tuesday PM will bring the front across the area by 8pm Tuesday evening. This will support northeast winds Wednesday with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday late into Thursday morning as the boundary lifts northward as a warm front.
The mid-level ridge axis will be over northeastern OK today but will be "flattening" by Wednesday. This will create a west or southwest flow aloft Wednesday and Thursday followed by a weak northwest flow aloft by Friday into the weekend. I have kept a slight pop through Saturday with unseasonably warm temps and probably should have added a slight pop for Sunday, but at this point will keep Sunday dry. The H5 data supports a small vort rounding the top of the ridge Sunday and this should be enough to fire up a stray storm or two.
The western half of the state will experience hot conditions today with triple digit readings likely in the drought-ravaged areas. I do see a weak upper level system brushing northwestern OK today and may be capable of producing a few rough storms. The dry air will more than likely evaporate any real precipitation and this will result in strong winds and dry lightning. The fire danger will be high across the western third of Oklahoma.