The unseasonably early heat wave continues but some minor relief is forecasted for the end of the week as our mid level ridge weakens and allows a front to near the northern OK and southern Kansas areas. This front is not expected to bring a major cool down, but some afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90 may be possible Saturday with a few showers and storms Friday into Saturday.
The boundary is expected to move into northwestern OK tonight or Thursday before slowly oozing southeast with time. A few showers and storms will be likely along and north of the boundary but most of our area will be south of the front. Southern sections of the state will have very little chance of experiencing storms but locations along and north of the highway 412 area may see a couple of showers or storms during the Friday and Saturday time period. The severe weather threat will remain marginal with gusty winds and some hail possible with stronger storms, but the coverage of thunderstorm activity is expected to be very low. We have kept the probability near 20% for Friday and near 30% for Saturday.
The GFS and EURO data support the boundary lifting northward Sunday pre-dawn as warm front effectively ending the chance of storms. The temperatures will move back into the 90s Monday and Tuesday with overnight lows remaining in the 70s.
The extended ensembles continue to hint at a pattern change by the end of next week with a northwest flow aloft developing over the area. This would open the gate for periodic storm complexes and fronts to move across the region. We're in the "wait and see mode" but this pattern is very typical for mid June and will eventually develop.
Our first tropical storm of the season is underway, but this is a pacific basin storm and not an Atlantic basin system. I underscore this difference because of the confusion on storm names. The first pacific storm is named Adrian while the first Atlantic basin storm will be called Arlene. You'll find the complete list of all names by clicking on this hot link.