A Slight Chance of Storms

There will be a chance of a few midday showers or storms, then chance of a few storms late tonight and overnight.  Highs today will be in the lower to mid 80s with partly cloudy conditions.

 Yesterday was a wonderful day after the morning clouds parted and the sunshine came rolling across the area.  An afternoon high in the 70s with dry air was a welcomed sight for a lot of storm weary folks.  We're almost finished with the current stretch of active weather but the next upper level wave is rapidly moving in our direction. 

The rapid refresh model is indicating a chance of scattered showers or storms developing near the Tulsa metro between 11am and noon today.  If this happens, the activity would quickly move east to northeast away from the region.  I'll keep this probability at a 30% chance.

 Later this evening and overnight we'll have another 30% chance of storms.  If these storms form, they may be strong to severe.

 The next short wave will cause a surface low to form quickly across southeastern Colorado and move into northwestern OK by early afternoon.  Southeast surface winds will quickly return and begin drawing moisture back into the state from the Texas regions.  A warm front is expected to form and also move northward as this moisture begins to pool.  If the storms form, there will be a chance of severe weather including the possibility of large hail and a tornado, but the coverage of activity is expected to be somewhat small. 

If storms don't form this evening, some storms may form overnight.  The low level jet will be developing and moving across the state as the warm front moves into northern OK and southern Kansas before dawn Saturday.  These storms could also be severe, but the question remains as to whether or not these storms will be surface based or elevated above the surface.  If the storms are surface based, all modes of severe weather will remain possible, but if the storms are elevated, the only threat would be some moderate hail and gusty winds.  I wouldn't think we'll see a large area of overnight storm activity either, but stranger things have happened as we all know.

 After early Saturday morning I think the layer of warm air aloft will suppress the storm activity for a few days despite a rather humid air mass.  This morning's data does keep a surface boundary very close to the OK-Kansas state line Saturday night into Sunday morning.  There will be a very slight chance of storm along the border during this period.

 Data supports a weak boundary sliding into northern OK Tuesday with a few storms possible across the northern third of the state, but this seems a rather low probability to me and I'll only keep a slight chance of storms for this period.

 About two weeks ago the extended ensembles suggested the end of May and first week of June would be characterized by increasing heights and a mid level ridge across Texas.  It appears we actually see the ridge developing right on cue.  This means an abrupt shift from a stormy pattern to a summer like regime in a matter of days.  Southwestern OK may be in the 100 to 108 range as early as tomorrow afternoon!  I think we'll be around 90 early next week, but it may feel warmer when the temperature and humidity are combined.

 A reminder: Just because the chance of storm activity is low doesn't mean we shouldn't remain aware of our weather surroundings.  If you're heading to the lake be sure and find a sturdy shelter if storms do approach.  Campers and recreational vehicles are no match for severe storms and of course tornadoes. 

Thanks for reading my blog, and have a super weekend.

Alan