Warming Trend Through the Weekend.


Thursday, May 5th 2011, 5:44 pm
By: News On 6


Hate to harp on how dry our western neighbors are, particularly since so much of E OK has had too much rain lately, but the map on the right is one way of showing the severity of the drought. Notice the sharp contrast which basically runs along I-35 with very wet conditions to the east and much too dry conditions to the west. Unfortunately, the situation is not likely to get any better for them anytime soon as the longer range guidance continues to suggest only spotty showers or storms and not the widespread relief they so desperately need.

As for E OK, the weak wind shift line that has moved through during the afternoon hours did manage to produce some showers and isolated thunder, but all that is quickly moving on eastward. It will be followed by clearing skies after the sun goes down and light winds. That means another very cool start to the day on Friday with temperatures generally in the 40s. However, our winds will quickly return to a southerly direction and become rather gusty by afternoon. Together with abundant sunshine, we should make it into the upper 70s and near 80 during the afternoon hours.

Another rapidly moving system in the NW flow aloft will quickly move across SE KS by early Saturday. This will induce a strong low level jet over NE OK and into KS/MO which will produce another chance of a few showers/storms to start the weekend. A weak surface boundary will also be moving into the state with our surface winds shifting from the S or SW to a more N or NE direction by afternoon. This boundary will also become diffuse so that brisk southerly winds will be returning on Sunday.

So, our weekend could see a few storms for the more NE counties first thing Saturday morning followed by a return to gusty southerly winds for Sunday and into the following week. That will result in very warm and humid conditions with highs well into the 80s to near 90 and overnight lows in the 60s to near 70. Although an isolated shower or storm is not out of the question, ridging aloft will be building overhead which should result in partly cloudy skies through Tuesday.

By later in the week, a stronger system will be approaching from the west with increasing chances of showers and storms. Some of those will likely be severe. The timing has been changing with each model solution, but right now it appears that late Wed and into the day Thursday could get interesting.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot