Quiet Pattern, For Awhile.


Wednesday, May 4th 2011, 8:24 pm
By: News On 6


As you can see by the map on the right, not much in the way of precipitation is expected in our part of the country any time soon. The map is a qpf(quantitative precipitation forecast) valid through this coming Monday evening. We are pretty much on the fringes of any precipitation at all and that is reflected in our forecast with only a slight chance for late Thursday or that night and again Friday night or early Saturday morning. If any showers or storms do occur, they will most likely be in KS and MO.

A weak cool front which is really not much more than a wind shift line will be moving across the state Thursday afternoon shifting our winds from southerly to a more NW direction as it moves on through. It will likely make it completely through the state by Friday morning where it is expected to become diffuse and dissipate. However, the partly cloudy skies and shift in the winds should be enough to keep us in the 70s for the afternoon high temperature. Friday will see a return to brisk southerly winds and afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80. As mentioned, there is a slight chance for a shower or storm with this system and primarily for the more NE counties.

After that, we will be quite warm through the weekend with daytime temperatures well into the 80s and our overnight lows will also reflect a warming trend. It will also be rather breezy with brisk southerly winds each day which together with the rising humidity levels will keep our nights much warmer as well.

Aloft, the wind pattern is briefly shifting to a more zonal flow which means the winds blowing generally from west to east. Embedded within that pattern will be a series of short waves with most of their energy focused further north of us as reflected by the qpf map on the right. However, there are some indications that the low level jet may set off a chance of showers or storms again late Friday night but primarily for the extreme NE counties or more likely into KS/MO.

This zonal wind pattern typically produces rather tranquil weather for us and that is expected to be the case through the weekend and into early next week. Nothing more than a few isolated showers or storms are currently anticipated. However, that pattern will begin to amplify early next week with a strong trough developing to our west. This will eventually lead to a more unstable pattern for us, the timing of which is still rather uncertain. Current indications suggest we will begin to see increased chances of showers and storms by late Wed or more likely into the Thursday or Friday time frame of next week. When that does occur, some of these storms will likely be severe.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot