One more round, then we will finally have a break in this unsettled pattern that has been so troublesome over the last week or so. However, this last round promises to be a real doozy as you can see from the severe weather risk map that is elsewhere on our web site. A rather extensive high risk area reaches into extreme SE OK and then on eastward from there. That is unusual.
Notice that much of E and NE OK is in the slight risk area. The reason for the difference is demonstrated by the OK Mesonet map on the right as of early this afternoon which shows the relative location of the highest amount of moisture along with the warmest temperatures and the wind field. Most of us will stay in the relatively cool sector of this system with only extreme SE Ok expected to get the really warm and unstable air back over them….a process that is currently underway.
That means that the surface based storms will be pretty well confined to those locations within the high risk and although most of us will still have a severe storm potential, hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be our primary threats.
Another consideration is how much more rain will we receive. Right now it appears that the additional rainfall will be more in the nuisance category and should not make the ongoing flooding conditions any worse. A few spots may receive another inch or so, but for the most part ½" or less is anticipated.
The timing of all this is expected to be taking place during the late evening hours and into the night tonight. By early Wed morning, the main storm will be tracking on east of us but we will be close enough for wrap around clouds and lingering rain or showers for much of the day. Together with a brisk northerly wind, that will keep temperatures quite cool and we may not even make it into the 60s during the afternoon hours.
After that is when we finally get a break. A clear, cool start to the day on Thursday will be followed by westerly winds and bright sunny skies which should get us back into the 70s. Strong southerly winds on Friday should get temperatures back into the 80s.
But not for long. Another cool front is coming this way and although there are some timing differences, it will be moving across the state either late in the day or that night. That will impact how warm we eventually are, but more importantly it will also bring another round of showers and storms, some of which may be severe. This system may slow down enough for some potentially heavy rains as well before finally clearing out and cooling things off for Sunday and Monday.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.