The first map on the right shows the statewide rainfall over the last two days as of mid-morning this morning and courtesy of the Oklahoma Mesonet. Notice that the heaviest rains have fallen generally across the extreme eastern counties; but very little, if any, rain has fallen where it is needed the most and that is over the more western counties. The second map on the right illustrates clearly how desperate the drought is for our western neighbors. It shows the total precipitation, rain and the liquid equivalent of snow, over the last 180 days. Less than 2 inches has occurred over that time span creating the extreme drought conditions out there.
Portions of Eastern Oklahoma could still use a good soaking for that matter, and unfortunately we may try to catch up on our rainfall deficit all at once. The unsettled pattern we are currently in will persist through Wednesday with periods of showers and embedded storms each day. A Flash Flood Watch is currently in effect through the day Monday and may need to be extended. Along with the periods of showers/storms comes a threat of severe weather with winds and hail the primary threat today, but all modes of severe weather may occur on Monday.
A nearly stationary frontal boundary remains anchored across extreme SE OK this Easter Sunday morning. The wind flow aloft continues to bring disturbances across the state which bring moisture over the top of the shallow surface front and lead to widespread showers and embedded storms. The warm sector is the most likely location for surface based storms to organize and therefore remains the most likely location for more significant severe weather. The rain cooled air to the north of the boundary has so far managed to keep it more or less in the same place.
However, a stronger system aloft is expected to come our way on Monday which just may be strong enough to back our surface winds to a more SE or S direction. If so, that would place much of the Eastern half of the state in the warm sector and at a greater risk of severe storms by Monday evening. This is still very uncertain, but a possibility.
In addition, yet another very strong system will approach on Tuesday into Wednesday which will stall the front to the south of us once again creating another potential severe weather situation for late Tue or Tue night. During the day Wednesday, the last in the series of strong disturbances will be moving on east of us with cloudy skies and lingering rain or showers finally coming to an end that night.
We will finally get a break for Thu and Fri with sunny skies expected.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.
On a personal note, I would like to take this opportunity to wish for each of you a joyous and holy Easter Sunday in spite of the rain and storms.