From Drought To Flood

Thursday, April 21st 2011, 5:05 pm
By: News On 6

Drought to flood! That is a distinct possibility as suggested by the qpf(quantitative precipitation forecast) shown on the right. As Alan mentioned in his morning discussion, a frontal boundary will be bouncing back and forth across the state over the next 5 or 6 days keeping a threat of showers and storms on any given day. This leaves open the distinct possibility of some training taking place in which a series of thunderstorms move over the same general area over a period of several days. This training of the thunderstorms often leads to flash flooding when they form and repeatedly move over the same area over a period of several hours. In this case, it appears that tendency will be for this training to take place over a matter of several days, but could still result in some locally heavy rainfall amounts by the time it is all said and done.

There will also be some severe potential pretty much every day with hail and localized wind damage possible with just about any storm. On those days in which the frontal boundary makes it north of us and we are into the warm sector, then that also leaves open the possibility of a more significant severe weather situation with tornadoes possible. That is a concern for Friday.

This active pattern is expected to persist not only through the Easter weekend but into at least the early part of the following week as well. That also means that Easter Sunday has a threat of showers and storms, some potentially severe. We certainly need the rainfall, and the next week or so may go a long ways toward making up our rainfall deficit. Just hope it does not all come at once.

As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot