A Cool Wednesday


Wednesday, April 20th 2011, 5:20 am
By: News On 6


We expect partly sunny conditions for the first part of the day but increasing clouds will be the call later today with a slight chance of scattered showers or storms late tonight.  Afternoon highs are expected in the upper 60s with northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph.  A very active weather pattern will unfold for the remainder of the 7 day planner and beyond.  Some severe weather will also be possible.

 The cold front moved across the Tulsa metro yesterday exactly one hour ahead of my morning schedule.  The storms did fire up east of Tulsa but mainly across extreme east central and southeastern OK

 The boundary is located to our south this morning and will be moving northward late today and tonight.  A weak upper level system may also move from the west to east today providing a few showers across southern Kansas during the next few hours.  Otherwise we will see scattered storm development later this evening across southern OK and some of these storms will move northward overnight into Thursday morning.  There remains some controversy on how far north the warm front will move later tonight and Thursday morning.  A few strong to severe storms will be possible tomorrow morning as these features take a jog northward.

 The eventual position of the boundary Thursday afternoon will determine the severe weather threat for Thursday night and Friday morning, but I do think we'll see a few strong to severe storms Thursday evening as the boundary oscillates near northern OK.  Highs Thursday will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

 The boundary is expected to slide more to the north Friday before moving back southward as  a cold front Friday night into Saturday morning.  A few strong to severe storms will also be possible during this time period.

 The boundary may stall across northern OK Saturday and Sunday providing the chance for additional shower and storm development through the period.  There remain plenty of diverging model solutions on exactly what may or may not occur, but we have kept a healthy probability in the forecast through the weekend.  As the weekend gets closer, hopefully we'll be able to pin down some specifics regarding timing and location.

We'll continue to see an active weather pattern for several days including most of the early part of next week! This will be good in the sense of increasing our rain chances, but could prove to be detrimental with another severe weather system also early next week.  EURO data supports a major system either Monday or Tuesday.

 Confidence:

Today: 8

Extended: 5

Issues:  exact timing and location of storm chances through the period.