11:08 AM Update:
The front is an hour ahead of my morning forecast timing and will be entering the Tulsa metro very soon.
This means our severe storm chances in Tulsa are over for the day. The threat of some strong to severe storms will remain across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas as the cold front approaches these areas during the next 3 to 4 hours. The fast movement of the system means the threat should be exiting the state around 6pm.
Upper air wind data supports a nearly uniform flow from the upper levels to the surface. This flow is not conducive for super cell development but would be conducive for line segments or squall line segment formation. Surface winds in extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas may back slightly allowing for some surface convergence during the early to mid afternoon period. If this occurs, there may be a very small window for discrete storm development before line segments would occur. The overall chance for storm development remains near 40% for Muskogee to Tahlequah with higher chances across western Arkansas.
Temperatures are also dropping behind the boundary with 40s and 50s reported across northwestern OK. The Tulsa metro will be topping out around 82 soon with falling temperatures in to the 60s once the boundary passes. We may be able to rebound back to near 72 by 5pm today with gusty northwest winds and increasing clouds.
We continue to watch the data closely regarding Thursday and Friday. Storm chances will remain for these time periods and some may also be strong to severe.
Dick will be posting updates later this afternoon.