Tracking Another System

We expect another warm and windy afternoon with mostly to partly cloudy conditions.  Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s or lower 80s with south winds from 15 to 25 mph.  Higher gusts will be possible.  A few showers or storms may form Tuesday morning as a system approaches the southern plains.  Higher chances will occur Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Some of these may be severe.

We're looking at another storm system arriving Tuesday afternoon and evening across the southern plains with another chance of strong to severe storms.  Once again the higher probability for storm development will occur near or east of Tulsa.  Western and central Ok will once again be too far west for any significant chance of storms.  The major and historic drought continues across the western half of the state and the fire danger will again be a major concern Tuesday across the drought stricken areas of the state.

The dry line will be nearing Tulsa by early afternoon Tuesday with a chance of strong to severe storms.  Storms that do manage to develop Tuesday afternoon or early evening will have the chance of being severe with large hail and possible tornadoes.  The storms will eventually form a line or a few line segments as they move eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Current NAM data suggest the dry line passage will be around 5pm to 8pm near the Tulsa area with the system clearing the eastern part of the state around midnight.

Another system will be approaching Thursday and may be stalling a boundary near northern OK for several days. The boundary may get a shove Friday evening before returning again Sunday.  This means a period of unsettled weather with scattered storm chances from Thursday through the weekend, including Easter Sunday. 

Extended data continues to support a very active weather pattern unfolding by the end of this week stretching into early next week.  Climatology would suggest we'll be dealing with several periods of severe weather potential. 

The major storm system that brought severe storms to our area Thursday continued to move eastward this weekend with devastating results.  Hundreds of tornadoes were reported with major damage reported in many communities.  The number of fatalities may rise during the next few days, but as of this morning over 45 people lost their lives due to the storm system that produced 240 tornadoes over three days in 14 states.

Confidence level:

7

Issues:  Timing and exact location of pops.