Super great weather is expected today with light wind and clear sky. Afternoon highs will move into the upper 70s. Windy and warmer conditions will be expected Wednesday and Thursday with a chance of storms Thursday evening. A cool weekend is likely with temperatures below normal. Some spotty showers may be possible Sunday.
We're getting concerned about Thursday afternoon and evening across the eastern part of the state regarding the severe weather threat. Model output suggests super cell storms will be possible Thursday evening across the eastern third of the state supporting the potential for very large hail and possibly tornadoes. The greater likelihood for severe storms will be along and east of highways 69-75, but the Tulsa metro will be on the western edge of the outlook area.
This morning's NAM buf kit data supports the following severe weather parameters Thursday afternoon at 5pm:
The position of the dry line Thursday afternoon according to the 00z NAM will be from Ponca City to OKC to Duncan OK. Dew points ahead of this line will be in the lower 60s. The dry line is forecasted to clear the Tulsa area around 11pm or so.
Model output supports storm development by late in the afternoon and then spreading into far eastern OK before exiting the state around 1AM to 3AM Friday. The upper level system may also bring a few brief showers across NE OK Friday morning, but we'll probably not include these in the forecast at this moment. I will lower the Friday temperature a few degrees to account for the possibility of the upper level system closing off and bringing clouds over the region.
After the passage of this late week system, we'll turn our attention to the Sunday and Monday time period, which is about as clear as mud at this point.
Another system will be approaching but the exact impact will be hard to pin down at this point. Some showers or thundershowers will be possible Sunday and a retreating warm front into the area Monday may also support another round of strong to near severe storms. The weather pattern next week should be active with ample opportunity for scattered storm development.