Warming Trend Soon


Wednesday, March 30th 2011, 5:26 am
By: News On 6


Another wave is located to our west this morning and will move over the state today.  The question remains as to whether or not this wave will be able to generate any shower or storm activity.   The models have not been exceptionally good for a while now and my first inclination is to keep a slight chance of showers for today and also tomorrow.  Most folks will not see any activity at all, but a few could possibly pick up a stray shower or two later this afternoon. 

 

The clouds have cleared this morning across central and western OK but this has been "self defeating "with fog forming during the past two hours.  I have kept our sky condition mostly cloudy for most of the day, but a few sun breaks are possible.

 Another wave will pass to the north tomorrow with a slight chance of showers or storms across northeastern OK and more so Southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri.

Then the warmer air kicks into high gear.

 We'll see Friday afternoon highs at least near 70 or possibly warmer despite north winds.

 Saturday into Sunday the next big system to our west will cause our surface winds to flip back around from the south and increase speeds as the pressure gradient tightens up. Highs Saturday are expected in the mid to upper 70s with afternoon highs Sunday in the mid 80s with southwest surface winds at 15 to 30 mph.

 Saturday night into Sunday morning there will be a very slight chance of a few showers or storms as relatively moist air moves back into the region.  I have kept this probability off the map at this point, but we may add in a few slight chance pops for this time period in subsequent update cycles.

 Monday a stout cold front will move across the state with a chance of a few storms.  If they form along the boundary they would be severe, but data and the pattern suggests a capping layer ahead of the boundary. 

 The air mass behind this boundary remains a big question.  Yesterdays EURO was back to the cold air Monday and Tuesday, but is not quite as cold today.  Today's GFS also leads some credence to a cooler and not warmer solution for Monday and Tuesday.  I have lowered the Tuesday temps from 70 to the lower 60s. 

 

Next:

The illness continues!  The little boy now has the nasty virus as big sister is in day two of recovery.  What are the odds that Mom and Dad will be attacked soon?   I hear it's going around quite a bit.