Rain in the Forecast, but not a Drought Breaker.


Monday, March 28th 2011, 4:02 pm
By: News On 6


On the right is another example of a QPF(quantitative precipitation forecast) to illustrate that although we are expecting some widespread rainfall on Tuesday, the amount will be generally on the light side. Some thunder will be possible, particularly during the morning hours of Tuesday and some localized rainfall amounts may exceed the more general ¼ inch this is showing. But, this is certainly not the drought breaker we need nor do we yet see a more widespread, heavier rainfall event that would break the expanding drought.

However, the cloud cover and NE winds is certainly keeping us on the cool side which together with the higher humidity levels does reduce the fire danger, at least for the short term. Tuesday will be another overcast, cool day but with a good chance that you will receive at least some rainfall. That system will then move on eastward, but a general cyclonic circulation aloft will maintain mostly cloudy skies and may produce a few showers again on Wed as well as Thursday.

Ridging aloft will become more established by Friday through the coming weekend. This will stabilize things so we expect to be dry during that period along with more sunshine and warmer temperatures. Southerly winds will also return in time for the weekend and are expected to become strong and gusty once again. That, in turn, means a high fire danger situation is very likely.

Current indications suggest another strong cool front will be arriving by early Monday morning resulting in a return to much below normal temperatures for the next few days after that. But, current indications also suggest most of the rain that this system will produce will more than likely be east of us, so we will continue to be on the dry side.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot