As you can see from the graphic on the right, burn bans are in effect for much of Oklahoma. I mention that because our Oklahoma winds will be on the increase this afternoon becoming quite strong and gusty for Monday and Tuesday. That will be in response to a storm system that will be moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains with a trailing cold front that will be arriving here Tuesday evening or night.
As pressure starts falling to our west, look for a return to S and SE winds this afternoon becoming quite strong and gusty for tonight through Tuesday when winds are expected to be in the 15-30 mph range along with higher gusts. These winds will warm things up, and will also try to bring some gulf moisture back our way. However, the Gulf of Mexico is pretty well cut off for the time being with northerly winds and dew point temperatures in the 30s along the Texas coast this morning. Thus, it will take awhile for that to recover which calls into question the quality and depth of the moisture return.
That also calls into question how much instability will be present for the development of thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front late Tuesday or Tuesday night. In any event, widespread showers and storms are expected and some will likely reach severe levels as the dynamics with this system will be quite strong. The greater chances for severe may be further E or SE where the deeper, richer moisture should be present.
The rest of the week looks pretty stable with any lingering showers into Wed morning quickly moving on eastward followed by clearing skies and seasonal temperatures. A weak cool front now looks to be arriving Friday night, but with little or no mention of rain at this time. Later Sunday or perhaps into Monday look to be the next chance of showers or storms.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.