A weak frontal boundary has entered northern OK this morning and will move southward for the next few hours. The will result in wind shift and cooler air across extreme northern OK, but no rain is expected. High clouds will be likely at times today across the state with highs in the mid or upper 60s near Tulsa and lower 70s south of I-40. Locations north of the boundary may stay in the upper 50s for afternoon highs. This would include the Bartlesville area. The next upper level system will be dropping down the west coast soon. This will allow for surface pressures to fall across the front range of the Rockies. Gusty south wind will form tomorrow and highs will move back into the lower to mid 70s Thursday with highs Friday in the lower 60s.
The storm system will drop southward with a front moving across Northern OK Friday night and across southeastern OK early Saturday morning. Rain and thunderstorm activity will be possible but the severe weather threat will be limited to far southeastern OK during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. A few hail storms may also be possible just behind the boundary for an hour or so.
The upper level system will be moving across Texas and wrap around moisture will be limited to far eastern or southeastern OK Saturday morning. Colder air will be moving into the area Saturday afternoon but moisture is expected to be east before the deeper cold air arrives. GFS data has consistently been fast and open with the system and therefore our forecast will follow more of the GFS solutions compared with the inconsistent EURO.
Another major storm system will be approaching the area early next week and severe weather potential may be increasing if low level moisture can surge back across the state before the system arrives Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Stay tuned.
The pattern will be conducive for storm systems to move across the nation every 3 to 5 days.
The fire danger will continue to be elevated across eastern OK through Friday and very high across western and central OK for the near term future. The Friday and Saturday system will offer very little or no rain chances for central or western OK.