Watching Thursday Closely

Update:

10:43 AM:

A quick update regarding Thursday and the storm potential.

Incoming data is suggesting a weak frontal boundary may slide into northern OK Wednesday evening due to the placement of the surface low across the southwestern areas of OK or just west of the DFW metro.  This surface low depiction is more south compared to previous runs.  Model parameters may be more favorable for severe storms across north Texas and southeastern OK Thursday if the placement of the surface low is correct.  This would keep northeast winds across extreme northern OK, possibly into the Tulsa metro, while backing southeast winds likely across southeastern OK up to near the I-40 corridor.  We can't get too cute with these model depictions at this point, but we continue to monitor incoming data closely for this period.  Another strong looking system will be moving into the area Sunday evening into Monday morning.  Current depictions keep the bulk of this system confined to far eastern areas into Western Arkansas Monday. 

I have no doubt solutions for both of these systems will change some from run to run.  We'll focus on the Thursday system for the short term.

 Afternoon readings should be in the pall bark with highs in the mid to upper 50s.  We're seeing the wind shift already to the southwest of Tulsa but still have northeast winds at this hour. 

 Increasing clouds will be the call later tonight with cloudy and breezy conditions likely tomorrow.  Some patchy fog or drizzle may be possible in a few spots early tomorrow but this is not expected to be widespread.  Highs tomorrow will move into the mid or upper 60s. 

 I'll keep you posted on the latest regarding the Thursday system.  

The morning post remains intact below:

Mostly sunny and mild conditions are expected later this afternoon with highs in the upper 50s.  A strong system will approach Wednesday night and Thursday bringing a threat of strong to severe storms.  Another strong system will move into the area Sunday night into Monday of next week.

 A cold morning is underway with morning lows in the mid 20s.  Daytime highs should move into the upper 50s or even a few lower 60 reports with sunny and mild conditions.  The next system will rapidly approach the area Wednesday night into Thursday with a threat of strong to severe storms.  The specific details of the system are starting to take shape.

 A strong upper level short wave will approach the southern plains by early Thursday.  A surface area of low pressure will form in western OK Wednesday evening and move northeast Thursday midday to early afternoon.  A dry line will develop across western OK with a warm front forming near the Red River and moving northward Thursday morning.  Low level moisture will be moving into eastern OK in the form of upper 50 degree dew points.  Strong winds at 5000 ft will zip across central OK by Thursday midday.  Surface instability will be greatly limited due to cloud cover but this set up is very prominent for late winter and early spring events where upper level dynamics can overcome the lack of moisture and instability. The expected shear profile of the wind would support discrete thunderstorms forming as the dynamics approach the area and these storms may produce large hail and tornadoes across the eastern third of the state.  This system would be moving eastward Thursday afternoon and would be ending by early evening.  A few early morning ( pre-dawn) thunderstorms will be likely as the warm moist air is lifted northward as the pressure begins to fall across western OK.  These storms would need to be monitored closely despite the early morning start.

 Following the Thursday system: more cool air.  

The extended data, mainly supported by higher confidence in the EURO data, would call for northeast surface winds for most of the weekend before another wave approaches Sunday into Monday.  This would induce another surface low, probably south of Tulsa, with rain or thunderstorm activity likely Sunday into Monday.  A shallow cold air mass may also follow the passage of this system with cooler air remaining through the early portion of next week.

GFS data is faster with this Monday system with EURO data supporting a slower and stronger storm system.