Early AM Fog

Wednesday, February 16th 2011, 5:07 am
By: News On 6

A dense fog advisory will remain for portions of northern OK and southern Kansas through 9am.  Other areas of across the state will also experience some fog for the morning hours.  Low level moisture continues to stream northward into the region this morning and additional low level clouds will also develop through the early morning hours.  Model data supports this moisture sticking around for the afternoon.  This would support a mostly cloudy day.  But yesterday the model data also supported a mostly cloudy day and the clouds parted by 1pm allowing sunshine and warm air.  I'll assume persistence is the wave of the future (how ironic) and will forecast the clouds to thin out later this afternoon with highs in the lower 70s.

 A weak surface trough-dry line feature will move closer to the area tomorrow with gusty southwest winds promoting highs in the mid or upper 70s across eastern OK and some lower 80s possible across the western half of the state.  The fire danger will be high in the western half of the state and elevated just west of Tulsa. 

 A weak boundary will move over the Tulsa metro Friday morning bringing north winds and highs back into the 60s.

 This boundary will lift northward Saturday with a few showers or storms possible.  Highs will move back into the upper 60s with southeast winds developing at 10 to 20 mph.  At this point in the forecast the confidence starts to drop a little.

 EURO data brings a strong shallow boundary into the northern OK area Sunday morning with colder air just north in southern Kansas.  A large area of post frontal precipitation forms near the state line with mostly cloudy conditions in the state. The boundary then retro's northward for a few hours before moving southward Monday with a chance of scattered showers and storms across Eastern OK.  Tuesday and Wednesday would be cold with highs in the 40s Tuesday and mid 50s Wednesday.

 The GFS data is much faster with the system and has the boundary clearing the state early Monday morning.  The air mass is of pacific origin behind this boundary with highs in the 60s Monday and the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.

 I have elected to keep a slight chance of showers Saturday for the eastern third of the area, and also keep a 30% pop for Sunday evening into early Monday morning as the front moves over the area.  I'll use a compromise blend of EURO and GFS data for the temperature forecast, which basically means a mild Monday and a cool but not cold Tuesday and Wednesday.