Thursday Midday Update

Here's a quick update to the ongoing forecast cycle.  We're still looking at very nice weather today through at least Saturday before things start to slide southward. 

A band of mid level moisture is noted over central and eastern Kansas at midday and should continue to slide southeast across part of northeastern OK.  This will create some partly cloudy conditions but afternoon highs should climb to near 60.  The warmer air is on track for Friday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and Saturday may also feature temps in the upper 60s before turning colder next week.

 The last few runs of the GFS and the EURO seem to suggest a strong storm system will be developing off the Pacific Northwest and moving into the southern part of the nation by Monday.  Colder arctic air will be sliding southward as this major upper level trough approaches the region Tuesday providing a chance of accumulating snow across a large portion of the state.  The 12Z EURO has yet to arrive in the office.  The last run of the EURO had the trough displaced further southward compared to the GFS.  This would mean a world of difference regarding where accumulating snow would track.  At this point my instinct is to increase the Tuesday probability to at least 40%, but I'll continue to hold off until we see the incoming EURO.  Stay tuned.