Tracking Two Systems

Monday, January 17th 2011, 5:16 am
By: News On 6

A weak upper level system currently over Kansas will slide southeast today bringing a slight chance of showers to the northeastern third of the state.  Our chance in the Tulsa metro will run from 20 to near 30%.  Slightly higher chances will remain across extreme NE OK and SE Kansas.  Meanwhile fog may also form this morning across central OK and it may become locally dense through 10AM.  If you are traveling westward this morning be prepared for this possibility. Highs today will range from the upper 40s in extreme NE Ok to the lower and mid 50s across the southern third of the state.  Tulsa will be near 51 for the afternoon high with a slight chance of showers after the noon hour through the early evening hours. 

A front will cross the area early tomorrow morning bringing a return to north wind and colder air.  Lows tomorrow morning will be in the upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Most of the precip should be to the east tomorrow morning, but there will remain a very slight chance of freezing drizzle or showers across extreme NE OK, SE Kansas, and SW Missouri early tomorrow morning for an hour or so. 

The clouds will clear tomorrow afternoon and clear sky will last through Wednesday midday before the next storm system arrives Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a chance of accumulating wintry precipitation. 

Data this morning from both GFS and EURO continue to offer some confidence regarding a winter weather event early Thursday morning.  North winds will usher in much colder air Thursday with readings in the 20s.  Light freezing precipitation will transition to sleet and then all snow quickly Thursday morning as the deeper colder air arrives.  Current estimates and GFS point data support a mix of 2 to 3 inches possible across the northern third of the state.  I must also mention the NAM output keeps most of this precipitation north of the state while bringing down the colder air Thursday.  

The extended temperature forecast Friday through Saturday will actually depend on what happens Thursday regarding the precipitation output.  Any snow on the ground would act to keep Friday and even Saturday numbers colder than current forecast values.  I have tweaked the numbers down Thursday and Friday from our previous set but have left Saturday and Sunday numbers basically the same.

GFS data would support a quiet weekend, while EURO develops another short wave Sunday to our west supporting a slight chance of precipitation Sunday evening into next Monday morning.  Stay tuned.