Now that we are finishing up with round three of this bout with wintry weather, the question becomes how cold we will be during the early morning hours. Those brisk NW winds which produced below zero wind chill values this morning and have been rather gusty all day long will be subsiding with the setting sun. The lighter winds together with clear skies and a snow pack just to the north all adds up to a mighty cold night tonight and again Wednesday night. Some of the colder valleys along the Ok/Ks state line where there is a little more snow could even drop below zero for overnight lows which will be the coldest we have been since……...this time last year. The snow pack clearly shows up on the visible satellite image to the right where the white is not clouds, but snow on the ground, including NE Tx and SE Ok.
Sunny skies and lighter northerly winds of only 10-12 mph for Wed will be followed by sunny skies and our winds returning to a more SE direction on Thursday. The north winds coming off the snow pack will keep us in the 20s again for highs on Wednesday, but the southerly winds and sunshine may allow temperatures to soar all the way to the freezing mark Thursday afternoon. It will be warmer on Friday as we expect to make it into the 40s that afternoon and 40s are also expected on Saturday.
As Alan mentioned in his morning discussion, there are some potential issues regarding the warm air advection that will be setting up for Friday night into Saturday and a weak disturbance in the winds aloft. That could produce some low stratus and possibly some drizzle to start the day Saturday, but that is by no means a sure thing and I am not showing anything on the forecast at this time. Just a possibility we will be watching out for.
Of greater concern is the Sun/Mon time frame. The longer range guidance continues to exhibit very little spatial or temporal continuity and one product would even have us in the 50s Monday. Current analysis of the various products suggests that solution is an outlier and the more likely scenario is for a cold front to arrive early Sunday, stall out to our south with a wave developing on the boundary that will move on eastward Monday. That scenario will produce cloudy, cool conditions and the potential for precipitation; the type and amount depends on the timing of when all this takes place but a wintry mix is certainly not out of the question for Sunday night and Monday. Thus, we are going with a colder solution for Monday and the longer range products are in better agreement for another surge of cold air to move in by Tuesday.
Of course all this is subject to change and later forecast cycles will begin to clear all this up over the next few days. So, stay tuned and check back for updates.