Here we are, a little less than two weeks before Christmas and we are looking at one of the coldest nights of the entire year tonight. So you may be wondering, if it is this cold now what is it going to be like by Christmas? Well, the old crystal ball does not quite go out that far with any reliability, but we do get some general indications out to 16 days.
I know many have travel plans in the week leading up to Christmas and after last year many are wondering if we will have a White Christmas again. So, thought I would use this space to address these issues over the coming days to give you at least a general idea of what the overall weather trends are during the next two weeks.
Let me get one thing out of the way right off the bat. Since we had a White Christmas last year, and since our historical records have never shown consecutive years with a White Christmas, the chances of having another one this year are in the slim to none category. Keep in mind that our historical record only goes back a little over a hundred years, and after all this is Oklahoma so anything is possible. Just don't bet the farm on us having another White Christmas this year.
That is also supported by the current weather trends. Although we are dealing with an arctic outbreak now, the trend over the rest of this week is for a less amplified pattern. That will favor a series of cool fronts coming our way, but they will not be tapping into the very cold, arctic air such as what we are dealing with tonight and Monday. By the middle of this week we will have moderated considerably, then a cool front will arrive to bring temperatures back below normal, but not to the extremes we have had recently.
Longer term, the trends support the overall pattern amplifying once again which would favor keeping us with below normal temperatures through much of the week leading up to Christmas and including Christmas Day. These trends also support keeping most of the precipitation to our east. If this pattern does indeed verify, then we would expect to have a cold but dry Christmas. However, if your travel plans would take you east of the Mississippi River, it could be much more interesting and I would suggest keeping a close eye on the weather during that week.
I will try to update this longer range outlook from time to time over the coming week. I hope you find these discussions helpful for your longer term planning. If so, please let us know. In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.