Good morning my friends! We're expecting cooler air today compared to yesterday afternoon. We had highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s yesterday before the front moved southward last night. A few showers and storms formed along the boundary overnight but most of these were confined to Western and Central Arkansas. A few of these were severe and a tornado watch was underway through 3AM.
The frontal boundary is slowly moving southward this morning and will be stationary around the Texoma region for most of the day. Northeast surface winds will keep us on the cool side today with afternoon highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s across northern Ok with some mid to upper 60s across southern OK.
Our attention remains focused for later tonight and tomorrow as things will start to change dramatically. The front will slide northward later tonight as a warm front and scattered showers and storms will be possible as warm air advection will occur. Temperatures Wednesday will end up near or slightly above the 70 degree mark with gusty south winds.
Late Wednesday night into early Thursday the arctic front will blast over the region bringing a big cool down to the region. But before hand a narrow line of storm activity will be possible, and some of these will be strong to near severe. The data is supporting some post frontal precipitation into the early Thursday morning period across eastern OK and western Ark, but this should not last long. The GFS and EURO suggest the front will arrive around 1AM to 3Am Thursday, with the NAM suggesting early Thursday morning. We have not changed our thinking regarding the outcome of the cold air. Thanksgiving may be one of the coldest thanksgivings since the early 90s. The morning may start out around 38 but readings will fall into the mid 30s by the afternoon with gusty north winds creating wind chill values in the teens.
The air will be dry and very cold Friday morning allowing surface temps to drop into the upper teens and lower 20s. The afternoon highs will be in the 40s Friday before moderating this weekend.
Another system appears likely by Monday evening with more cold air next week.