If it seemed unusually warm this morning, it is because we started off the day where our normal daytime highs would be and if that wasn't warm enough for you, we will be even warmer to start the day on Monday. Normal daytime high temperatures at this time of year are in the upper 50s and that is what our low was this morning and we expect to be in the 60s to start the day on Monday. One of the reasons for these very warm conditions for this time of year is shown on the map at the right. Notice that our dew point temperatures are in the lower 60s across much of the state with drier air not evident till you get into far western Oklahoma.
Another effect of these high dew point temperatures is that the ground has cooled enough that condensation takes place by the early morning hours in areas protected by the wind. This condensation, or ground sweat as it is often called, could be sufficient to create some slick spots for any early morning travelers.
Speaking of the wind, it is those gusty southerly winds that have brought the high dew point temperatures over the state. On Monday, the winds will become a little more SW in direction and that may be enough to provide a little more sunshine during the day. Any sunshine at all with the very warm start will put us well into the 70s for an afternoon high temperature. A few showers/storms will also be possible, particularly for the more eastern counties and into Arkansas by late afternoon.
After that, it starts getting tricky. Tuesday is still very questionable as some colder air is just north of us in Kansas where temperatures vary by 30 degrees from the southern part of the state to the northern part of the state. Some of that cooler air will be moving our way by early Tuesday and the position of that boundary will make a huge difference in local temperatures. Have opted to shoot in the middle of the guidance as the more northern counties will likely be cooler and the more southern counties will likely be warmer.
Wednesday is also interesting in that the boundary should be trying to move back north as a warm front. If it does, then gusty southerly winds will warm things up considerably before the bottom falls out. The strong cold front we have been talking about for days now looks like it will not reach us till during the overnight hours of Wednesday night. A chance of showers and possible thunder along the front will be followed by gusty northerly winds and much cooler conditions for Thanksgiving Day itself. Some showers may linger into the extreme E or SE counties first thing in the morning, but in general our skies should be clearing as the cold, dry air moves in.
That will be followed by dry, cold conditions for Friday and a gradual warming trend for the coming weekend.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.