As mentioned yesterday, timing is everything and that is becoming more and more evident with respect to our weather today and in particular for Friday. For example, a weak cool front has moved to about the I-44 corridor at this time with lingering clouds and temperatures well into the 70s ahead of it. A more W to SW wind immediately behind the boundary has brought in drier air resulting in lots of sunshine and temperatures that may reach the upper 70s. However, just a little further west, NW winds and cooler air has settled in keeping temperatures in the 60s this afternoon.
This boundary will move back north as a warm front tonight and Thursday with moisture surging back over the rest of the viewing area. This could result in a few showers or even some thunder later tonight, but only about a 20% chance. Better chances are expected on Thursday and as the next system strengthens to our west and comes our way on Friday that will be our best chance of rain and thunder. As Alan mentioned in his discussion this morning, the latest and greatest numerical model data has delayed cold frontal passage by quite a bit as compared to where it was expected to be 24 hours ago.
With that in mind, look for the actual cold front to not reach us till after dark Friday evening. That will allow temperatures to reach the upper 60s or perhaps even the lower 70s during the afternoon followed by much cooler conditions after the front passes. Also, most of the showers/storms still look to be post-frontal which will minimize our severe threat. However, that also means the best chance for rain will likely be Friday evening/night which has obvious implications regarding Fri night football.
So far, all the available guidance is consistent in slowing down the passage of the cold front on Friday, but keep in mind that subsequent model data may change all this yet again, so stay tuned and check back for updates.