Thursday Noon Update

Noon Update:<br/>Morning computer model data remains pretty consistent through the weekend, but as Alan mentioned, the solutions begin to diverge by early next week. The warming trend will be very evident

Thursday, November 8th 2007, 3:56 am

By: News On 6

Noon Update:
Morning computer model data remains pretty consistent through the weekend, but as Alan mentioned, the solutions begin to diverge by early next week. The warming trend will be very evident right on through Sunday and Monday. Cloud cover will be the wild card regarding how warm it will be during the day as it appears that the LLJ(Low Level Jet) will be cranking up Friday night and Saturday. This will bring in some Gulf Stratus cloud cover for Sat AM, but those strong surface winds should also mix out the shallow moisture enough for at least partly sunny afternoon skies. At any rate, expect 70s during the day and 50s or low 60s at night along with southerly winds of 15-25 or more.

Friday looks great for football with southerly winds of 10-15 under mostly fair skies.

There is very little confidence in the solutions for early next week as there is considerable temporal and spatial discontinuity in the various computer solutions. About the best we can say is that the Mon, Tue, Wed time frame will be much more unsettled than the last few weeks have been with a decent chance of rain or storms each day.

Dick Faurot

From 3:57 AM:

Good Morning.

Lots of uncertainty regarding Monday and Tuesday, but the trend looks good. Expect warmer weather from now through the weekend with the best chance of showers or storms around Monday.

Temperatures are running several degrees warmer at this hour compared to yesterday at this time and a warm up will continue for the next several days. Sunday we may near the upper 70s with a few 80s across far western OK before the next system arrives sometime Monday into Tuesday with cooler air. As seems to be the case this past year, we have controversy regarding model data with the extended probabilities. Not only do we have different output solutions with different models, but run to run consistency within each model is not very good. The differences center around the eventual outcome of the middle atmospheric trough, disturbance, or closed low ( take your pick) that we have seen over the last few days in the model data and the impact on the southern plains. Hereâ€™s my best shot. Windy and warm conditions will persist this weekend as a lead short wave moves across the four corners Saturday and low level moisture attempts to move into the southern plains. Itâ€™s doubtful weâ€™ll see any precip Saturday in the immediate area, but could see a stray shower or two to our east. Sunday an area of low pressure forms in Northwestern OK or Southwestern Kansas as the lead wave either ejects to the northeast or weakens considerably. Meanwhile back to the west yet another disturbance will quickly approach. This disturbance will move into the area Monday and provide a decent chance of showers or storms for at least eastern OK Monday afternoon and evening before a frontal boundary sweeps over the area bringing dry air temporarily back to the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Our previous forecast kept a good chance of showers or storms for Tuesday, and Iâ€™ll actually keep this pop in place today due to the uncertainty of the forecast, but would be leaning toward lowering the Tuesday probabilities from 40% to 30% if my thinking isnâ€™t changed as tomorrow.

Alan Crone
KOTV