More Storms Possible

Thursday, July 19th 2007, 3:32 am

By: News On 6

The streak of consecutive days of a shower or storm somewhere in the viewing area ended yesterday. One lone shower formed just east of Fort Smith, so as far as Iâ€™m concerned, our streak ended at 40 days. We get another dry afternoon before a front arrives late tonight with another chance of showers and storms.

The front is located roughly in southern Nebraska this morning and will move at a good clip to the south today. Later tonight thunderstorms will be entering southern Kansas and could be strong to severe. A few storms may form early this evening across Northwestern OK, but probably not here until after midnight or so.

There will be a chance of severe storms today across the central plains and as far south as Southern Kansas later tonight. Convective energy will be decent even though shear will more than likely be marginal to pretty slim by the time the storms get closer to extreme northern OK. If our timing is correct, our chance of severe storms will be slim, but not zero.

Overnight into early Friday morning some showers and storms should move into at least northern OK as the front attempts to move south of the Tulsa area during the day. Additional showers or storms should also form, scattered in nature, during the day Friday for areas along and south of I-40. The exact amount and coverage of thunderstorm activity the boundary will produce for our area remains somewhat of a mystery this morning. But Iâ€™ll continue with a decent shot of storms for mainly Friday at a 50% probability.

Itâ€™s very rare that a front would make it to the Red River in July and actually old together, so Iâ€™ll play the weekend with caution, but currently only include a slight chance of showers or storms Saturday.

IF the front holds together and remains near the area Sunday, we may have to mention a shower or two for Sunday, but for now, weâ€™ll keep it dry.

By the middle of next week, we have controversy regarding the exact position of some features including the location of a mid level ridge. Ridging, generally speaking, causes sinking and compressing air which helps to warm us up and keeps vertical development of clouds low. I resist the urge to ramble on here, but for now Iâ€™ll keep Tuesday dry. I canâ€™t imagine not including some kind of probability for showers or storms by at least Wednesday and Thursday of next week if not sooner.

Alan Crone