Summer? Really?

Monday, July 16th 2007, 3:41 am
By: News On 6

Before we take a look at the future….
The streak of a shower or storm in our viewing area continues! Both Saturday and Sunday isolated showers and storms formed in the area even though most locations missed out. This brings us through day 38, and today will be day 39. I feel confident that at least one shower or storm should form in the area so the streak keeps on trucking.

The pattern has shifted. Thankfully. We’re now seeing a ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper portions of the atmosphere that is building across portions of the Rockies to the southeast. This will allow sinking compressing air to warm us up and limit the thunderstorm production. Of course we do have some issues.

This morning a weakening complex of storms located in Kansas will move south into extreme northern OK, mainly west of I-35. Later today an outflow boundary associated with this system may provide a focus for scattered storms. While the ridge is going to limit the precip chances, the air flow around the eastern edge is still from the north, so we continue to watch with interest any complex of storms that manages to form in the northern and central U.S.

Additionally daytime heating and residual low level moisture will more than likely crank up a shower or storm across far eastern OK during peak heating hours the next few days. This is very normal for the time of year.

The computer models, (which haven’t been too good in the last month) continue to suggest a trough or a shear zone located in the middle atmosphere that will be located to our south the next few days. I’ll be watching the progression of this feature, but for now will keep any organized areas of showers or storms associated with this feature to our south. Last week, the models indicated this feature would be influencing eastern OK with a good chance of rain around Tuesday.

By the end of the week a frontal boundary is expected to push near the area around Friday or Saturday and you’ll notice we include a 30% chance of showers or storms Saturday to account for this feature. It’s very odd to see a frontal passage to far south of Tulsa this time of year, but this has been an odd year.

Talk with you soon!

Alan Crone