Forecasters predict above average hurricane activity in 2003; Atlantic ould see 8 hurricanes

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) _ Next year's Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be harder-hitting than 2002's, with a greater-than-usual chance that an intense hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline,

Friday, December 6th 2002, 12:00 am

By: News On 6

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) _ Next year's Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be harder-hitting than 2002's, with a greater-than-usual chance that an intense hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline, the nation's leading hurricane forecast team said Friday.

In their first forecast for the 2003 season, Colorado State University professor William Gray and his associates said they expect 12 named tropical storms between June 1 and Nov. 30. Eight are expected to evolve into hurricanes, and three into intense hurricanes. Intense hurricanes are defined as those with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

This year also saw 12 named storms, but only four became hurricanes and two intense hurricanes. Last December, Gray's team predicted 13 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four intense hurricanes for 2002.

The annual average is 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes.

According to the forecast, there is a 68 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting somewhere along the U.S. coastline in 2003, compared to the last century's average probability of 52 percent.

Gray said the predicted increase in activity is largely due to expectations that current El Nino conditions _ abnormally warm surface water in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean _ will end. At the same time, sea surface temperatures will rise in the north and tropical Atlantic.

A moderate El Nino and uncharacteristically cool temperatures in the tropical Atlantic helped inhibit hurricane activity in 2002, he said. Even with that relatively slow season, the storm seasons spanning 1995-2002 comprise the most active eight consecutive hurricane years on record.