The front and storm system that brought the severe weather yesterday is now southeast of the state this morning and will bring some pleasant and cooler weather back into the area for today before our next system brings additional storm threats into the state Thursday night and early Friday morning. A few of these storms may also be strong to severe Thursday evening into early Friday morning, but higher chances for these types of storms may be to our southwest or south. Following the Friday morning frontal passage, much cooler air will be likely for the state this weekend and for a few days early next week.
Temps this morning will start in the lower to mid-50s with afternoon highs reaching the lower 70s along with northwest winds near 10 to 25 mph as a surface ridge of high pressure builds southward across southeastern Kansas and northeastern OK later tonight into early Wednesday. This morning some high based clouds and a few sprinkles will be possible for a few hours across southern Kansas and extreme northern OK. This should thin-out by midday and I’ll not include any mention of precip in the forecast today.
Wednesday may be the best weather day of the week with this ridge nearby allowing morning lows near 50 and highs in the mid-70s. We’ll expect mostly sunny conditions along with a few clouds and a light breeze Wednesday before ridge moves east as the next system arrives Thursday into early Friday morning. The only exception to this will be our neighbors in far southeastern Kansas where a fast midlevel wave may bring a brief shower across the area Wednesday midday to afternoon. The upper air flow will continue from the northwest for the next few days with an unusually deep upper trough across the upper Midwest. This trough will bring much colder air across the Midwest and into the eastern third of the nation soon, including the deep south and far eastern U.S.
The next strong upper disturbance the has an impact for our weather will drive down the flow will arrive Thursday into Friday, but the trend in most operational data is taking the surface low southward, along the Red River Valley, Thursday evening. This would place most of northeastern and central OK on the top or cool side of the system by midday to afternoon. The take-a-way is to lower the temps slightly for Thursday compared to previous forecasts and to restrict the severe weather threats more southwest or south of the metro. We could still see some strong to severe storms with the Thursday into early Friday system as the surface boundary passes the area, but the threat of significant severe weather typical for May could stay southwest or south of our main areas of concern.
Our pattern here in the southern plains will bring some cooler weather yet the state will reside on the western edge of this pattern. We continue to think Friday into the weekend will feature cool conditions with afternoon highs Friday in the 60s. Saturday morning lows will drop into the lower mid-40s with highs only in the lower to mid-60s while Sunday may rebound from morning lows in the mid-40s to afternoon highs in the lower 70s. Another front will move across the state early next week with additional cool conditions.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!