A warm and moist atmosphere will remain across central and eastern OK for the next few days while a mid-level low develops and becomes separated from the main upper air flow.
The result will be several days of rain and storm chances that will enhance flooding probabilities for part of eastern OK for the next few days. A flash flood watch is posted for part of NE OK through Tuesday morning. Severe weather chances will remain in some form or fashion but should be isolated in nature and mostly with precip loading events with damaging downbursts of wind. Occasionally, a tropical-like funnel or weak tornado is possible in this environment.
Highs today will reach the mid-70s but will remain quite humid with local dewpoint temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Scattered storms are likely this morning as a weak MCV continues lifting northeast from the state. Later this afternoon, additional storms are likely as a another disturbance currently across Texas begins moving northward into eastern OK. This feature will be responsible for developing some afternoon convection with a slight chance of a few strong to severe storms but higher threats for heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning will remain. Rap soundings and some composite data support increasing shear profiles across far eastern OK and western Arkansas. This means a few severe storms capable of a brief and weak tornado would be possible. Again, this chance is relatively low but not zero.
As mentioned earlier last week, it appears the main belt of the westerlies continues to migrate northward, which is a normal expectation for late May and early June. This eventually signals the return of mid-level ridging, periods of northwest flow and increasing humidity and temperature in a week or so. The stronger flow aloft is northward today, but some scattered storms of course will remain likely due to those specific features outlined earlier.
Later today or early Tuesday, a mid-level low is expected to develop across western OK or northwest TX and will become cut-off from the flow. This feature will basically remain near our area for several days this week and will help to produce daily showers and storms near the central to east of the feature. At this point, high pops will remain for the eastern third of the state Tuesday through Thursday, but with each day, slightly lower chances following.
By Friday, the low should be migrating eastward and rejoin the flow while a mid-level ridge of high pressure begins influencing the plains bringing about a drying and warming trend for next weekend. At least that’s the plan at this point. We do see some differences in the latter half of the period regarding this upper low in the GFS that would keep some precip chances into the approaching weekend, while the EURO would bring us the dry conditions. At this point, I’m leaning toward the drier EURO solution for the weekend.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!