A few storms are possible this morning across far southeastern Kansas near an old outflow boundary from yesterday.
A couple of these could float down into far northeastern OK early this morning. Otherwise, most of us will continue with hot and muggy weather today as heat indices climb near 105 to 112. Highs will reach the mid to upper 90s.
A weak back-door front approaches northeastern OK from Missouri later this evening and brings a mention for some scattered storms late this afternoon and through tonight. As the mid-level ridge stays slightly west, additional storm chances will be mentioned for Friday night into Saturday morning for part of the area but chances will remain low.
The good news continues to be a reduction in heat and humidity for the 4th of July Holiday weekend.Highs will still reach the lower 90s, but heat index values will remain below 100. The pattern will bring a weak system nearby Monday through Wednesday before more heat and humidity return by the end of next week.
Temperatures will climb quickly this morning. Low level moisture continues to be rather robust and will support heat index values nearing 100 by 11AM this morning. As the back-door boundary nears from the northeast, moisture will also pool along this wind shift and could support very high heat index values for an hour or so this afternoon before a few storms attempt to develop across far northeastern OK and southern Kansas. This environment can produce damaging downbursts of wind as storms collapse, but the odds for severe weather will remain low.
I also need to stress the storm chances, while nearing 40 to 50% for northeastern OK, will not provide rainfall for everyone. Hopefully, you see some activity soon. The Tulsa metro just wrapped up the driest June on record.
If your making plans for the 4th, based on our current data expect 3pm Saturday near 92 with a heat index of 96. East to northeast winds will be expected from 10 to 15 mph along with a few widely scattered thunderstorms. Any storm activity should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Temps by 9pm Saturday night support 84 in the metro with upper 70s across the valleys.
Some data support a weak upper level feature slowly moving across part of the state early next week.We’ll keep some low mentions for a few showers and storms at this point for Monday through Wednesday. Southern Oklahoma may end-up with higher chances.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.