Week Begins With Another Heat Advisory Before Storm Chances Arrive

The mid-level ridge of high pressure will begin another journey moving to the southwest over the next few days.

This will bring another pattern of northwest flow aloft across the southern and central plains states, including Oklahoma for the next several days. This unusual pattern for August will keep us somewhat unsettled with increasing chances for showers and storms, almost daily when considering the pattern, but with limited chances while considering actual model output this morning.

Regardless, our forecast will err on the side of the pattern and keep some decent chances for storms in the forecast. Highs today will reach the mid to upper 90s along with heat index values nearing 105 in some locations. Another heat advisory will be posted for a large portion of northeastern OK. After today, daytime highs will drop a few degrees. While heat index values will be uncomfortable (humid) for most locations, heat advisories would not be required for the middle of the week based on current projections.

A small cluster of surviving storms will move across southwestern Kansas this morning and should begin to dissipate around midday. If not, this will be the surprise factor of the day, with a few storms developing by early afternoon along the OK-Kansas state line region, near Bartlesville to Independence. This will represent a low chance.

Later tonight, additional storms are likely to fire across southern Kansas and part of northwestern OK where a weak convergence zone is likely to establish. Storms will move southeast with time and may approach northeastern OK before weakening after midnight. A convectively induced area of vorticity is likely to establish from this activity and maybe lingering near our area early Tuesday morning allowing for developing storms early Tuesday morning near the area. These storms will be increasing in coverage by Tuesday midday as this feature moves southeast out of Oklahoma into Arkansas.

A few of these storms may become strong to severe. After early Tuesday morning, storm chances will be heading out of the rea for the rest of Tuesday afternoon. But late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, the pattern would suggest the potential for a few additional storms developing across part of the area.

This chance will remain low and mostly based on the pattern and not actual model output. Wednesday evening into Thursday morning does have both pattern and model support for some higher chances. I also will keep this general cycle of late night into early morning storm chances up and running through the weekend. Also, EURO data support a strong front arriving Sunday but with little support from other data at this point.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone