Summer has returned to northern Oklahoma with sunshine and highs projected to reach the lower to mid-90s.
No major heat index values are expected Monday nor Tuesday. The 2nd half of the week hinges on the eventual outcome of the tropical systems in the Gulf. Weekend shower and storms chances arrive as a weak frontal boundary is stalling across part of northern Oklahoma.
We may see a few bands of showers Wednesday and Thursday, but the chances will remain low as the evolution of the tropical storm tracks could change. This is a normal forecast challenge for tropical systems. The remnant of Marco will remain well south of the area Tuesday into Wednesday but could spread moisture northward into southern OK by Wednesday. Laura will be stronger, but also tracking more to the east of the state Thursday with limited influence.
Our short-term forecast remains clustered upon the influence of a mid-level ridge of high pressure centered to our northwest. This will keep the state warm and dry Monday and Tuesday. Low-level moisture is slowly increasing, and we'll feel some minor heat index values nearing the mid to upper 90s on Monday and Tuesday with daytime highs reaching 92 to 94 around the metro. Morning lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Low-level moisture should be increasing nearby Wednesday into Thursday as the tropical moisture spreads northward.
Marco will near the southern Louisiana coastal region later tonight and make landfall sometime pre-dawn Tuesday before rapidly weakening as it skirts the Texas coastal region. We'll be on the north side of this system which will keep northeastern OK slightly above seasonal averages. Low-level moisture increases Wednesday and a few showers or storms will be possible as a few bands of activity move from the south to north across part of the area.
Tuesday night into Wednesday, Hurricane Laura will near the southern Louisiana region and move northward Wednesday into Thursday as a strong system nearing the southern Louisiana coastal region. Thursday afternoon into early Friday the remnant low will be closer to Arkansas, but the exact trajectory of the system will be the controlling factor for our chances for precipitation. A track across western Arkansas brings higher chances to eastern OK. A track across far eastern Arkansas may only brush far eastern OK with a chance for showers. At this point, chances Thursday will remain low and mostly to the far eastern sections of the state.
This weekend a weak boundary will near northern Oklahoma before stalling. This feature will bring a mention for a few showers and storms with no major change in airmass or temps. Highs this weekend will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s along with slightly muggy weather. A stronger front could approach for the following week.
Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog. Have a super great day!
- Alan Crone