News On 6 Exclusive Poll: Hern Well Ahead In Quest To Be Re-Elected

Friday, October 23rd 2020, 2:39 pm
By: Bill Shapard /Political Pollster

TULSA, Okla. -

Republican Congressman Kevin Hern is up for his first reelection and the most recent poll results aren't showing any weakness at all.

Among a sample of 1,492 likely voters in the 1st District of Oklahoma - the largest poll ever conducted by SoonerPoll in the district - Hern led Democratic newcomer Kojo Asamoa-Caesar by 29 points, 58.8% to 29.8% for Asamoa-Caesar. Perennial candidate Evelyn Rogers, an Independent, had 5.6% and the remaining 5.8% were undecided.

Hern led his Democratic opponent in 2018 by just 22 points.

If the upcoming November GENERAL election for your U.S. House seat was held today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1. Kevin Hern, the Republican58.8%
2. Kojo Asamoa-Caesar, the Democrat29.8%
3. Evelyn L. Rogers, an Independent5.6%
4. Undecided5.8%

Hern outperformed both President Donald Trump and U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe in their respective races, with Trump garnering 55.8% of the vote in his race with Biden and Inhofe getting 54.4% in his.

Slightly more than 88% of Republicans support Hern in his reelection and 15.4% of Democrats. Independent voters were more evenly split with Asamoa-Caesar getting 38.9% to Hern's 31.9%. Independents make up only 11.7% of the electorate on election day.

Hern led among women likely voters, 56.5% to 29.4%, and among men likely voters with 61.6% to 30.2% for Asamoa-Caesar.

Every age group supported Hern by double digits except those under the age of 34 who supported Asamoa-Caesar 54.4% to 35.2% for Hern. Those under the age of 34 only make up about 8% of the electorate in the first congressional district.

Among those over the age of 65, Hern led by an overwhelming 33.1%. Those over the age of 65 make up the largest age group of the electorate with 37%.

Over 21% of likely voters in the first congressional district reported their intention to vote by absentee this year of a post-pandemic which is more than four times the number in 2018.

One-in-three likely voters also reported their intent to vote straight Republican this year which is almost double of those reporting their intent to vote straight Democratic.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters for a general election. The poll was commissioned by News9 in Oklahoma City and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted October 15-20, 2020 with 5466 likely voters selected at random statewide from a dual-frame of cell phones and landline telephones. Cell phone participants were texted a link to conduct the poll on their phones and landline participants were collected using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by political party, age, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.' The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±1.32%.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.