Political Experts Say Trend Changes Difficult To Track For 2020 Election

Policy experts at the University of Oklahoma-Tulsa said trend changes in this year's election have made it difficult to project which way the election will go.

Policy Expert Dr. David Blatt with OU-Tulsa said it'll be interesting to see the response from the candidates once a winner is named.  

They said there hasn't been a complete redrawing of the electoral map, but what we have seen is more states becoming toss ups and turning purple.  

Dr. Blatt said some of President Trump’s strongest support comes from largely rural, less educated, white voters. 

"Previous trends have really been strengthened this year,” said Dr. Blatt. “Although he did make some in roads among minority populations, among African American men, among Hispanics" 

Dr. Blatt said young voter turnout is certainly benefiting Joe Biden. Dr. Blatt said one area of change is the southern sunbelt, including Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, which he said used to be a Republican stronghold.   

“Moved steadily more towards the Democrats as a result of people moving to the area from northern states but also a growing Hispanic immigration,” said Dr. Blatt.  

Blatt said we're also seeing small changes in the what used to be called the Democrats' blue wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the upper Midwest. This year we also saw many absentee ballots, which Dr. Blatt said used to trend Republican, but not anymore.  

"In this polarized country, if you were afraid of COVID, chances are you're a Democrat,” said Dr. Blatt. “If you're Republican, COVID seems to be less of an issue overall. So, Democrats were much more likely to vote absentee." 

He said this could be why Joe Biden won Oklahoma's early vote, while same day results show the state overwhelmingly in favor of Republicans. Now with the result of the presidential race in question, Dr. Brenda Lloyd-Jones with OU-Tulsa said this election is undoubtedly hindering mental health. 

"The pandemic, the civil unrest and the voting processes have really stirred up a recipe for stress and anxiety,” said Dr. Lloyd-Jones, OU-Tulsa Department of Human Relations. 

Dr. Lloyd Jones recommends limiting political conversations and social media exposure as we await results.  

Dr. Blatt said the nation is keeping a close eye on the battleground states that continue to be a close call, and some may be close enough for a recount.  

“As those absentee ballots that arrived before election day or before the end of the election continue to get counted, we’re going to continue to see a clear winner in Pennsylvania, and I think we may escape a situation where the Supreme Court is called in to decide,” Dr. Blatt said.