Strong Southerly Winds, Elevated Fire Danger

Once again, our main issue for the short term will be strong southerly winds and elevated fire danger issues for most of Eastern OK. The increasing low-level moisture will act to offset some of the potential, but the strong south winds from 20 to near 40 mph will continue to push any fires that start. A few clouds are likely this morning. A few sprinkles could develop but the chance remains rather low. By midday to afternoon, the clouds begin to thin out with partly sunny and windy weather for the afternoon. Another wind advisory will be required for part, but not all Eastern OK today. Highs will also reach the lower to mid-70s today before our weather pattern brings a change with increasing thunderstorm chances for the northern third of the state late tonight into Thursday morning. This active weather pattern will remain through the weekend, with occasional thunderstorm chances, including the threats for locally heavy rainfall and even some strong to severe storms, but not for all locations.

The main upper airflow from the southwest brings several disturbances near the region including one later tonight through Thursday morning. Additionally, a weak surface front is expected to move from southern Kansas into northern OK during this period and stall Thursday morning through midday. Locations near this boundary will have a chance for a few storms, including the threats for a few strong to severe storms. But the latest data continue a solution of keeping most of the storms northwest of the metro for the evening before bringing a few across the area pre-dawn Thursday. I’ll continue with only a slight chance for later tonight to our north with slightly better chances pre-dawn Thursday near Tulsa.

This front will either remain near or migrate slightly northward Friday into Saturday as yet another disturbance approaches from the southwest. Additional showers and storms will remain possible, even likely along and north of highway 412 Thursday evening into Friday morning through midday, including the possibility of heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe storms. The overall severe threat will be limited but the chance for moderate to heavy rainfall will remain, mostly along the OK-KS state line region.

Showers and storms will be likely late Friday night into Saturday morning, but mostly along and north of the highway 412 region. Friday night into Saturday morning this boundary may retreat enough northward to keep most of the region dry or at least with lower probabilities for the day Saturday until the main upper-level system nears the state Saturday night and Sunday. As this strong closed low approaches, storms will become likely late Saturday evening and move eastward Sunday morning through midday before clearing the region by late afternoon. Some of these will more than likely be severe across the western section Saturday late evening as they near our area early Sunday morning. The timing of this part of the system continues to change and additional changes are still likely to the forecast.

The pattern may also transition to more of a northwesterly flow for the middle of next week with some data supporting another decent cool-down with below normal temps. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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