Highs In The Upper 50s, Scattered Storms Likely To Develop Later In The Evening

The next strong upper-level system dives down the West Coast and turns the corner across the southwestern U.S. tonight while moving across part of the state later tonight into Thursday morning. Scattered storms are likely to develop later tonight, mostly along the I-44 corridor southward as the lead wave ejects to our northeast. A weak boundary will establish across southeastern OK, and this quadrant of the state stands the higher chance of experiencing strong to severe storms this evening. The main forcing of the system will continue east and provide for another severe weather event for our friends and neighbors across the southeastern U.S., where a moderate risk of severe weather has been posted by the SPC.

As this system arrives later tonight, most of northern OK will be along or north of a developing surface low and boundary, which will bring northeast winds across our area. This will keep highs today mostly in the upper 50s or a few low 60s with partly cloudy sky until later afternoon when the main system nears with increasing clouds. Locations south of I-40 will experience mostly southeast winds for the afternoon with highs reaching the lower 70s along with increasing low-level moisture along both sides of the Red River. As the main system nears and storms become more numerous, strong to severe storms will be more likely along and south of the I-40 region, more so along the Kiamichi mountains for our immediate area of concern. This does not totally exempt the northern sections from seeing a few strong storms with marginal hail, but the better severe weather parameters will be overlayed across the southern sections.

Thursday morning some activity is likely to remain, at least across southeastern to east-central OK as the main system quickly advances eastward. This data remains a little uncertain regarding how long the Thursday morning precip may linger and how far north this may develop, but we’ll keep some mentions for the first half of the morning. A few strong to severe storms will quickly develop as they move eastward out of the state early tomorrow morning, but any threats will more than likely remain across the state line into Arkansas or eastward.

Friday a fast-moving upper-level wave develops across the Rockies and dives southward, but our low-level moisture will be lacking greatly. We’ll expect highs reaching the lower and mid-70s with sunshine and a gusty south wind developing through the afternoon. A few isolated storms may sneak down into southeastern Kansas Friday evening, but this seems a low probability. A surface front crosses our area Saturday bringing gusty northwest winds, yet highs should reach the lower or even mid-70s. A weak disturbance across North Texas Saturday evening may trigger a few showers or storms across southeastern OK as the boundary continues moving south, but this chance also currently remains low. For the metro, but higher for the southeastern quadrant of the region. Sunday looks good with north winds, partly cloudy sky, and highs in the mid-60s.

Early next week also remains a little iffy in the data at this point, but a consensus supports another wave nearing with additional storm chances nearing early next week followed by a notable cool-down Wednesday.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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