Gusty south winds return today and tomorrow with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s.
A storm system brings a chance for a few storms late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, and a few could be strong to severe. Our main issue today remains the gusty winds and fire danger spread across the state. A strong upper-level low will dive down the intermountain region over the next 48 hours before bringing storm chances back to a part of the state Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some of the storms may be strong to severe, mostly pre-dawn Wednesday. Before this system arrives, the strong southerly low-level flow will persist both today and tomorrow with winds gusting from 20 to 30 mph today and possibly from 20 to 40 mph Tuesday.
Wind advisories are likely tomorrow. Despite the increasing low-level dew points, the fire spread rate will remain high during this period. Dew point temps should reach the upper 50s and lower 60s Tuesday afternoon ahead of the system. As the first part of energy rounds the base of the trough during the day Tuesday, a few storms will attempt to develop by the early evening across far northern OK or southern Kansas. A layer of warm airflow, the CAP, will prohibit most but not all vertical development. Our better time for storms will be mostly after midnight into pre-dawn Wednesday as the main low draws closer to the region and storms attempt to develop. The extent of storm development southward into the body of Oklahoma is questionable due to the presence of warm air aloft. Any storms that do develop would be severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
The main upper-level low will eject across central Kansas Tuesday night into Wednesday and then move across the Midwest with most of our area residing on the cool, backside of the northwest flow Thursday through Friday. Some differences in the data will keep the 2nd half of the weekend currently with some low chances for storms. Some data bring the front back northward Friday night into Saturday across the Red River Valley with scattered storms before moving back out of the state Saturday morning. Yet additional data also provide another front nearing Sunday night into early Monday with a chance for a few storms. While the inconsistencies in the data will keep the confidence low, for now, both scenarios will be mentioned in our forecast with low chances late Friday night into Saturday morning and again late Sunday night.
Temperatures today will reach the upper 70s with gusty south winds and a partly cloudy sky. Our fire danger issues will remain, mostly due to the gusty south winds. Tuesday features even stronger winds from 20 to 40 mph along with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday starts near 60 and ends with highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s with west to northwest winds and drier air moving into the state. Thursday morning lows will be mostly in the mid-40s with highs in the mid-70s. Friday into the weekend supports lows in the lower 50s and highs in the upper 70s.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.