Severe Weather Threats Remain Across Parts Of Green Country

The potential for severe weather will remain across northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas today as a cold front and upper-level system near the area later this afternoon and evening. While the focus for severe storm activity occurs this afternoon and tonight, morning to midday storms may also develop as a convectively induced area of vorticity approaches from the southwest and could pose a low-end threat for a strong-to-severe storm. Any morning to midday storms may complicate the afternoon and evening scenarios some, but the main messaging of severe weather threats will remain. As the system moves southeast later tonight, storms will end, leaving most of northeastern OK rain-free Friday through most of the Memorial Holiday Weekend. Another system will near the area late Monday into early next week with additional storm chances for returning.

Abundant tropical moisture in the form of lower 70-degree dew points continue surging northward into the state this morning with clouds and morning lows also in the lower 70s. Leftovers from big storms last night across central Kansas skirted far northern OK and southern Kansas early this morning.

Storms in western OK have also weakened, but a disturbance associated with this activity will move east into our region this morning through early afternoon. This is the wild card in the forecast today. This disturbance may develop a few scattered storms this morning through early afternoon. At this point, the scattered nature of this activity is not expected to disrupt the potential for stronger to severe storms later this afternoon and evening. If, for some reason, we have a much higher number of storms over a larger area this morning, this could impact or change the afternoon scenario slightly. As of this posting, we continue to think the higher severe weather threats will occur later this afternoon into the early evening hours.

Later this morning, some hi-resolution data suggest an outflow boundary from this activity could be positioned near or slightly north of the I-44 corridor by early afternoon as a short-wave aloft moves across the central plains and a surface cold front enters northwestern OK and southern Kansas. Convective potential energy will be approaching moderate categories along with increasing surface instability. A derived data point that describes the potential spin in the atmosphere should also be increasing by early afternoon as stronger winds aloft near the state. The result should be scattered thunderstorms developing by 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. near this region. If these storms remain discrete, there will be a high likelihood of these storms becoming severe, including the potential for very large hail and possibly a tornado. As the cold front moves southeast, additional storms will quickly become linear along the front and blossom into one or possibly two-line segments that move rapidly southeast with increasing wind damage potential. Most data suggest this storm complex should exit southeastern OK around midnight. Any lingering showers or storms pre-dawn Friday would not be severe and mostly well south of the metro. The cold front is expected to reach the Red River Valley and stall for a few hours Friday afternoon before additional storms develop into north TX. These are also expected to remain south of our immediate area. The data this morning has trended slightly cooler for our post-frontal airmass and I’ve made some minor adjustments, mostly to the overnight and morning lows.

At this point, the weekend looks good for northeastern OK. Any shower or storm activity should remain west or south of northeastern OK.

Monday, Memorial Day is a little tricky, but for now, I think any storm activity holds off until late Monday evening and then increases Tuesday with another set of probabilities that last well into next week.

Please remain aware of your weather surroundings later today and have multiple ways of receiving warning information from the National Weather Service.

Alan Crone

KOTV

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