A Nice Break Before Heat and Humidity Return

Drier air has temporarily invaded the state behind Monday’s unseasonably strong cold front bringing near-record lows on Tuesday morning in several locations across eastern Oklahoma.

Tuesday, June 22nd 2021, 7:22 am



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Drier air has temporarily invaded the state behind Monday’s unseasonably strong cold front bringing near-record lows on Tuesday morning in several locations across eastern Oklahoma.

This cooler air will only last a day with south winds quickly returning Tuesday afternoon through the end of the week as our next storm system develops across the northern and central plains. Significant low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will arrive Wednesday to our southwest and become more notable Thursday across most of eastern Oklahoma as daytime highs shoot into the mid-90s.

Local heat index values may reach the 103 to 107 range and would trigger heat advisories for some locations Thursday and possibly Friday. Another cold front nears the state Friday night into Saturday bringing additional showers and storms to some locations Saturday and possibly for part of Sunday. The front Friday into the weekend is not nearly as strong as the last system but will provide us some relief from the heat and humidity with weekend highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Highs are expected to reach the mid-80s on Tuesday but with relatively dry air remaining for the day with sunshine and light south winds. Nearly a six-star weather day for June.

Before the weekend system arrives, we’ll be watching for one or two isolated cells Wednesday as the initial surge of moisture returns from central Texas into central Oklahoma. This is a very low, but not zero probability for our neighbors west. We’ll also watch across the central plains as a storm complex is likely to develop Wednesday and may drive southeast into part of northeastern Oklahoma early Thursday morning as it decays. I have not included a probability for early Thursday but this is a wildcard and something we’ll be watching in the data closely for the next few runs.

 There remain some big differences in the data regarding the exact positioning of the boundary from Saturday into Sunday with some data suggesting the front clears most of our immediate area by Saturday afternoon and others keeping the front positioned closer to northern Oklahoma through Sunday. One set of data would keep Sunday mostly precip free, while the other brings more rain and storms, including the threat of some locally heavy rainfall due to the proximity of the front. I’m leaning toward the latter for this update but will offer a compromise solution for Sunday into Monday. This means my probabilities Sunday will not be as high as the latter set of data depicts, at least for now. For my update, higher pops begin late Friday night into Saturday morning to midday. 

 Another interesting note is the longer period of toughness offered in the medium to longer range for late June into early July. This would keep the central and southern plains active, with storm chances through the first part of the incoming month. 

 Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

 Have a super great day!’


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