Summer Starts To Make A Gradual Return, Scattered Showers Remain Possible

The pattern changes soon and brings heat and humidity back across most of Eastern Oklahoma through the weekend and early next week. While the heat and humidity will take center stage, a few scattered showers or storms will remain possible, but not very likely for most locations.

Low-level flow returns today, and the slow process of increasing moisture is underway. This brings a low chance for a few isolated showers or storms across Eastern OK and western Arkansas this afternoon, but the overall coverage and probability remains very low. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 80s and a few lower 90s with a mix of haze, sun, and clouds. Today will be the first day we’ll notice an increasing heat index through the afternoon with daytime values reaching the mid-90s. These values are expected to cross over the 105 threshold this weekend with many locations across the eastern third of the state under heat advisories that may be extended for several days next week. Morning lows will move into the mid and upper 70s this weekend with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. The recent rainfall and lush, green vegetation will act to keep daytime highs slightly below the normal realization of this pattern, at least for the short term. Later next week the atmosphere will begin a slow drying period allowing the heat index to drop a few degrees but allowing the afternoon highs to reach near or right at 100 late next week. Before the midlevel ridge of high pressure amplifies too much a weakness on the peripheral of the feature may allow a weak disturbance nearing from the north and east Sunday into early next week that could trigger a few scattered storms, but the probability remains very low with the anticipation of the developing and strengthening ridge. We continue to see some signals in the data for a few decaying complexes of storms attempting to take a run at northeastern OK late Sunday night into Monday morning, but the overall chance remains low in this pattern as the point in the forecast process. While there remain some differences in the exact positioning and strength of the ridge next week, after Tuesday, any mention of showers or storms will cease for the rest of next week. 

Normally, once this type of ridge becomes established across our area it tends to remain for a while with growing heat issues and lower storm chances. The pattern all summer has kept the mean ridge west. I’m inclined to think our pattern next week may be more of an anomaly with the ridge possibly changing locations again late July into early August. Only time will tell.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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