Scattered Storm Chances Remain Before Hot Weather Returns This Weekend

We're still tracking at least two, possibly three distinct upper waves that will influence our weather with scattered shower and storm chances for the next few days. A few of the storms will produce locally heavy rainfall and potentially gusty winds in stronger cells. The lack of deep upper-level shear and the positioning of stronger flow well north should mitigate severe weather threats. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal for afternoon highs but will also slowly be increasing heat index values through the end of the week. This weekend, heat index values will be ranging from 100 to 105, especially Sunday into early next week, when heat advisories may return across part of eastern OK for a few days. 

If you read yesterday's post, I mentioned a small convectively induced area of vorticity to our west. This feature triggered scattered storms yesterday for some locations west of the metro and may still be possible to aid in the development of scattered storms this morning and throughout the day across eastern OK. The overall confidence in the exact location of storm activity is not exactly high but there will more than likely be a few developing, even this morning near and south of the metro. Additional scattered storms are likely Wednesday through Friday as a mid-level trough advances across the area.

Well north, a stronger upper-level low will eject across the intermountain region of the Rockies Friday into Saturday while entering the northern high plains. A weak surface front should progress southward, reaching southern Kansas Friday before stalling as the upper trough quickly advances into the northern U.S. this weekend. A few additional storms will be possible near this boundary before the front either becomes diffused or lifts northward away from the region Saturday into Sunday. I'll continue with probabilities through Saturday but limit the chances afterward as most data support a building mid-level ridge across Oklahoma allowing for the return of hot and humid weather into early next week. 

Tropical Fred is now inland and will soon dissipate as it moves more north this morning. Tropical Storm Grace will eventually emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico and may reach hurricane status this weekend. No direct impact on U.S. coastal areas is currently anticipated. Tropical Storm Henri is in the Atlantic and will pose no threat to U.S. mainland interests.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

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